Current Market Regime — TradeWise Live Intelligence

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Not investment advice. AI-generated analysis for educational purposes only. All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

CURRENT REGIME

TRENDING_BULL

Day 1 · Confidence: 73% · Score: 59/100

REGIME STATE

TRENDING_BULL

Reduced (70-80% of normal)

CONFIDENCE

73%

High conviction

DAYS IN REGIME

1

trading days

COMPOSITE SCORE

59

-100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish)

What TRENDING_BULL Regime Means for Your Portfolio

POSITION SIZING

Reduced (70-80% of normal)

STOCK SELECTION

Low volatility factor emphasised, avoid high-beta

STOP-LOSS

Tighter stops (8-10%)

CASH TARGET

15-25% cash reserve

SECTORS FAVOURED

Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples

SECTORS TO WATCH

High-growth tech, Small caps

Choppy regimes reward patience. Whipsaw losses are the primary risk.

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All 5 Market Regimes

RegimePosition SizingStop-LossCash Target
BULL Full position sizes — no defensive scaling Standard trailing stops (15%) 5-10% cash reserve
CAUTIOUS Standard position sizes Standard trailing stops (12%) 10-15% cash reserve
CHOPPY Reduced (70-80% of normal) Tighter stops (8-10%) 15-25% cash reserve
BEAR Significantly reduced (50-70% of normal) Tight stops (6-8%), faster exits 25-40% cash reserve
CRISIS Minimal (20-30% of normal) or fully defensive Immediate exit on any position showing loss 40-60% cash reserve

How Our Regime Detection Works

TradeWise classifies market conditions into 5 regimes using a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX-based stress), market structure (price integrity), trend structure (direction and momentum), cross-asset signals (bond/equity correlation), and momentum quality (breadth and quality of momentum).

The composite score ranges from -100 (extremely bearish) to +100 (extremely bullish). A 2-day confirmation hysteresis prevents whipsawing, with one exception: VIX ≥ 35 triggers CRISIS immediately (no waiting).

Track record: In the 2022 bear market, regime detection helped limit drawdown to -1.7% vs the S&P 500's -18.2%. During COVID (2020), the system detected CRISIS within 48 hours and limited losses to -13% vs -34%. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market regime?

TradeWise's regime detector currently reads TRENDING_BULL (Day 1, confidence 73%). This is determined by VIX levels, market breadth, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. Updated May 31, 2026 at 17:08 UTC.

Is the stock market going to crash?

TradeWise monitors seismic triggers that precede major crashes: VIX spikes above 35, yield curve breaks, credit stress, and liquidity crises. During the COVID crash, our system detected CRISIS within 48 hours. The current regime is TRENDING_BULL. This is not a prediction — it's a classification of current conditions.

How does market regime detection work?

TradeWise uses a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX), market structure, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. The composite score (-100 to +100) maps to 5 regimes. A 2-day hysteresis prevents whipsawing, except VIX ≥ 35 which triggers CRISIS immediately. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.

What should I do in a bear market?

In Bear regime, TradeWise recommends: reduced position sizing (50-70% of normal), tighter trailing stops (5-8%), defensive sector rotation toward Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples, and elevated cash reserves (25-40%). TradeWise returned -1.7% in the 2022 bear market vs the S&P's -18.2%. Not investment advice.

Disclaimer: TradeWise provides AI-generated analysis for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk of loss. Backtested results are hypothetical. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. Scores generated by the V56 momentum engine based on Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) momentum research and Barroso & Santa-Clara (2015) volatility targeting.