Current Market Regime — TradeWise Live Intelligence
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CURRENT REGIME
CHOPPY
Day 1 · Confidence: 13% · Score: 10/100
REGIME STATE
CHOPPY
Reduced (70-80% of normal)
CONFIDENCE
13%
Moderate conviction
DAYS IN REGIME
1
trading days
COMPOSITE SCORE
10
-100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish)
What CHOPPY Regime Means for Your Portfolio
POSITION SIZING
Reduced (70-80% of normal)
STOCK SELECTION
Low volatility factor emphasised, avoid high-beta
STOP-LOSS
Tighter stops (8-10%)
CASH TARGET
15-25% cash reserve
SECTORS FAVOURED
Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples
SECTORS TO WATCH
High-growth tech, Small caps
Choppy regimes reward patience. Whipsaw losses are the primary risk.
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Start Free Trial →All 5 Market Regimes
| Regime | Position Sizing | Stop-Loss | Cash Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | Full position sizes — no defensive scaling | Standard trailing stops (15%) | 5-10% cash reserve |
| CAUTIOUS | Standard position sizes | Standard trailing stops (12%) | 10-15% cash reserve |
| CHOPPY | Reduced (70-80% of normal) | Tighter stops (8-10%) | 15-25% cash reserve |
| BEAR | Significantly reduced (50-70% of normal) | Tight stops (6-8%), faster exits | 25-40% cash reserve |
| CRISIS | Minimal (20-30% of normal) or fully defensive | Immediate exit on any position showing loss | 40-60% cash reserve |
How Our Regime Detection Works
TradeWise classifies market conditions into 5 regimes using a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX-based stress), market structure (price integrity), trend structure (direction and momentum), cross-asset signals (bond/equity correlation), and momentum quality (breadth and quality of momentum).
The composite score ranges from -100 (extremely bearish) to +100 (extremely bullish). A 2-day confirmation hysteresis prevents whipsawing, with one exception: VIX ≥ 35 triggers CRISIS immediately (no waiting).
Track record: In the 2022 bear market, regime detection helped limit drawdown to -1.7% vs the S&P 500's -18.2%. During COVID (2020), the system detected CRISIS within 48 hours and limited losses to -13% vs -34%. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.
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Create Free Account →Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market regime?
TradeWise's regime detector currently reads CHOPPY (Day 1, confidence 13%). This is determined by VIX levels, market breadth, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. Updated April 12, 2026 at 01:43 UTC.
Is the stock market going to crash?
TradeWise monitors seismic triggers that precede major crashes: VIX spikes above 35, yield curve breaks, credit stress, and liquidity crises. During the COVID crash, our system detected CRISIS within 48 hours. The current regime is CHOPPY. This is not a prediction — it's a classification of current conditions.
How does market regime detection work?
TradeWise uses a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX), market structure, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. The composite score (-100 to +100) maps to 5 regimes. A 2-day hysteresis prevents whipsawing, except VIX ≥ 35 which triggers CRISIS immediately. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.
What should I do in a bear market?
In Bear regime, TradeWise recommends: reduced position sizing (50-70% of normal), tighter trailing stops (5-8%), defensive sector rotation toward Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples, and elevated cash reserves (25-40%). TradeWise returned -1.7% in the 2022 bear market vs the S&P's -18.2%. Not investment advice.