Current Market Regime — TradeWise Live Intelligence
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CURRENT REGIME
TRENDING_BULL
Day 1 · Confidence: 73% · Score: 59/100
REGIME STATE
TRENDING_BULL
Reduced (70-80% of normal)
CONFIDENCE
73%
High conviction
DAYS IN REGIME
1
trading days
COMPOSITE SCORE
59
-100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish)
What TRENDING_BULL Regime Means for Your Portfolio
POSITION SIZING
Reduced (70-80% of normal)
STOCK SELECTION
Low volatility factor emphasised, avoid high-beta
STOP-LOSS
Tighter stops (8-10%)
CASH TARGET
15-25% cash reserve
SECTORS FAVOURED
Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Staples
SECTORS TO WATCH
High-growth tech, Small caps
Choppy regimes reward patience. Whipsaw losses are the primary risk.
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Start Free Trial →All 5 Market Regimes
| Regime | Position Sizing | Stop-Loss | Cash Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | Full position sizes — no defensive scaling | Standard trailing stops (15%) | 5-10% cash reserve |
| CAUTIOUS | Standard position sizes | Standard trailing stops (12%) | 10-15% cash reserve |
| CHOPPY | Reduced (70-80% of normal) | Tighter stops (8-10%) | 15-25% cash reserve |
| BEAR | Significantly reduced (50-70% of normal) | Tight stops (6-8%), faster exits | 25-40% cash reserve |
| CRISIS | Minimal (20-30% of normal) or fully defensive | Immediate exit on any position showing loss | 40-60% cash reserve |
How Our Regime Detection Works
TradeWise classifies market conditions into 5 regimes using a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX-based stress), market structure (price integrity), trend structure (direction and momentum), cross-asset signals (bond/equity correlation), and momentum quality (breadth and quality of momentum).
The composite score ranges from -100 (extremely bearish) to +100 (extremely bullish). A 2-day confirmation hysteresis prevents whipsawing, with one exception: VIX ≥ 35 triggers CRISIS immediately (no waiting).
Track record: In the 2022 bear market, regime detection helped limit drawdown to -1.7% vs the S&P 500's -18.2%. During COVID (2020), the system detected CRISIS within 48 hours and limited losses to -13% vs -34%. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.
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Create Free Account →Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market regime?
TradeWise's regime detector currently reads TRENDING_BULL (Day 1, confidence 73%). This is determined by VIX levels, market breadth, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. Updated May 31, 2026 at 17:08 UTC.
Is the stock market going to crash?
TradeWise monitors seismic triggers that precede major crashes: VIX spikes above 35, yield curve breaks, credit stress, and liquidity crises. During the COVID crash, our system detected CRISIS within 48 hours. The current regime is TRENDING_BULL. This is not a prediction — it's a classification of current conditions.
How does market regime detection work?
TradeWise uses a 5-layer composite scoring system: volatility regime (VIX), market structure, trend structure, cross-asset signals, and momentum quality. The composite score (-100 to +100) maps to 5 regimes. A 2-day hysteresis prevents whipsawing, except VIX ≥ 35 which triggers CRISIS immediately. Based on Daniel & Moskowitz (2016) research.
What should I do in a bear market?
In Bear regime, TradeWise recommends: reduced position sizing (50-70% of normal), tighter trailing stops (5-8%), defensive sector rotation toward Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples, and elevated cash reserves (25-40%). TradeWise returned -1.7% in the 2022 bear market vs the S&P's -18.2%. Not investment advice.